My neighbor and I ran the Philadelphia marathon together and we were both in our early 40's at the time. It was his first marathon, about my tenth. I ran a 3:26 and he eeked out a 2:59. 30, wanting to die at the end. I actually credit my husband and 3 kids with his impressive time because they saw how close he was and screamed themselves hoarse for him to make it. It seems like he and I meet your stats quite well.